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This from MaineToday.com:

THE ALVAREZ FACTOR: Another possibility for the starting rotation may develop during the year. Portland Sea Dogs Pitcher of the Year Abe Alvarez is headed to Pawtucket [Boston's AAA affiliate in the International League] for 2005. Boston won't rush him, but if he shows signs he's ready and the Red Sox have a spot for him . . .

I can hear Abe singing now..."Future's So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades."

Baseball America pegs Jason Vargas as the 8th highest prospect in the Florida Marlins minor league system. In his debut pro year, he began at Class A Short Season Jamestown, going 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 8 starts and 41 innings. Opposing batters hit .224. Jason struck out 41 while walking only 13. He was then promoted to low Class A Greensboro, where he went 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA. He started 3 games, and pitched 19 innings, striking out 17 while walking only 2, and yielding only a .143 batting average. He has not made any relief appearances.

Baseball America has this analysis:

JASON VARGAS, lhp. Age: 21 B-T: L-L Ht: 6-0 Wt: 215. Drafted: Long Beach State, 2004 (2nd round). Signed by: Robby Corsaro.

Background: Vargas was a two-way player during a circuitous college career that saw him spend a year each at Louisiana State, Cypress (Calif.) JC and Long Beach State. The Marlins considered taking him in the first round in 2004, but opted for Taylor Tankersley before grabbing Vargas in the second. He's the nephew of former major league infielder Randy Velarde.

Strengths: Vargas has good arm strength, working at 91-94 mph with his fastball. His tight slider is a putaway pitch against lefties. His changeup has good downward action at times and could become a plus pitch. He has a strong mound presence, working quickly and going right after hitters. He has sound mechanics and command.

Weaknesses: Some scouts wonder if Vargas may wind up as a reliever because he has just one plus pitch against righthanders. Though he has a good physique, there's some concern about potential weight gain in his lower half. He tired near the end of the year after a late promotion to low Class A, but that's typical for first-year players.

The Future: Vargas should stay with Tankersley, beginning 2005 back at Greensboro. If he continues to show the progress he made in his pro debut, he'll reach high Class A by season's end.

It's an old cliche. But baseball...especially college baseball...is played on the field, not on paper. Polls and other prognostications are a lot of fun for fans, but in the end they are nothing but opinion. They don't decide the outcome of games, or seasons. Just for grins, I've compared Collegiate Baseball's 2004 preseason poll with the final poll after the end of the College World Series. Here's the results:

Preseason	School		        Final

Poll					Poll



1.		Rice			10

		Miami, Fla.		5

3. 		Louisiana St.		8

4. 		Georgia Tech.		11

5. 		Texas			2

6. 		Stanford		9

7.		Arizona St.		23

8. 		Cal. St. Fullerton	1

9. 		Wichita St.		28

10. 		Notre Dame		19

11. 		Baylor			NR

12. 		Long Beach St.	        12

13. 		Tulane		        15

14. 		South Carolina	        3

15. 		Florida		        18

16. 		Southern California	NR

17. 		Clemson		        26

18. 		Auburn		        NR

19. 		Florida Atlantic	30

20. 		Nebraska		NR

21. 		North Carolina	        27

22. 		Arizona		        6

23. 		Washington		21

24. 		Florida St.		14

25. 		Minnesota		NR

26. 		Nevada-Las Vegas	NR

27. 		Mississippi		24

28. 		Winthrop		NR

29. 		North Carolina St.	NR

30. 		Mississippi St.	        NR

The Long Beach State Dirtbags have the distinction of being the only school to have the same rank in both the preseason and final polls. This result is certainly an anomoly.

I was curious just how well Collegiate Baseball did with its preseason poll predictions. I've calculated the average difference between the preseason poll position, and the final poll position. I've assigned all teams which were not ranked in the final poll (NR above) to 31st place (since the final poll doesn't rank beyond 30th place). The average ordinal difference, whether higher or lower, comes out to 7.7.

The biggest moves down were Baylor (from 11th preseason to not ranked), Wichita State (from 9th to 28th) and Arizona State (from 7th to 23rd). The largest move up was by Arizona, from 22nd preseason to 6th in the final poll. Interestingly, each of these teams has a Dirtbag connection. Baylor and Wichita State were on the 49ers schedule last season, and are again in 2005. Long Beach State helped to drop each in the rankings, sweeping three games against Baylor and two against Wichita State. Arizona's surge in the poll was, of course, also aided by the Dirtbags as the Wildcats took two of three in the Long Beach Super Regional. And finally, the Dirtbags open the 2005 season on the road against Arizona State.

Baseball is played between the lines.

Collegiate Baseball Newspaper has named Cesar Ramos a First Team preseason All-American, and placed Troy Tulowitzki on it's Third Team preseason All-American list. Here's the story at Collegiate Baseball Newspaper, and at longbeachstate.com.

Collegiate Baseball Newspaper is out with their preseason top 40 poll. Long Beach State, which finished at number 12 in their final poll following the 2004 season, is pegged at number 14 in the preseason poll.

Their top 10 are, in order:

Texas
Miami (Florida)
Fullerton
Tulane
LSU
Stanford
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Texas A&M

In addition to Fullerton, 2005 Dirtbag opponents in this preseason poll include Arizona State (at #11), Baylor (#25), Wichita State (#26), Pepperdine (#29) and UC Irvine (#36).

The article with the poll includes an analysis of Texas, Miami and Fullerton.

Update: Here's a link to the story at longbeachstate.com.

At this point, it's probably a coin flip between the Cardinal, Huskies, and Sun Devils for the favorite in the Pac-10. ASU, like Stanford and Washington, looks to have the bats and the arms to challenge for the conference title and make a run at Omaha. Six offensive starters return led by Team USA star OF Travis Buck (.373-9-58). Buck had a spectacular sophomore campaign last season and should be one of the top outfielders in the country. Talented catcher Tuffy Gosewisch (.342-2-49) and emerging star in center fielder Colin Curtis (.300-5-36) will carry a lot of the load offensively. Meanwhile, Head Coach Pat Murphy has to be thrilled to have OF/1B/3B Jeff Larish (.308-7-41) back for his senior season. Statistically speaking, Larish may have been the best hitter in the country as a sophomore (.372-18-95), but a down year last spring dropped his draft stock and thus he's back in Tempe. If Larish comes close to his 2003 form, watch out, the Devils likely will finish better than third in the conference. The Sun Devils will have to deal with the loss of All-American shortstop Dustin Pedroia who has moved on to professional baseball.

Ace starter Jason Urquidez (12-3, 3.41) returns for his senior season. Urquidez was one of the top pitchers in the conference last year and should lead a talented ASU pitching staff. Erik Averill (4-4, 5.19) was one of the top pitchers in the conference as a freshman in 2003 and will try to bounce back. Meanwhile, fireballing relievers Zechry Zinicola (4-2, 3.36, 8 SV) and Pat Bresnehan (3-2, 4.79) should wreak havoc in the conference - potentially as starters.

The matchup Friday between Urquidez and Cesar Ramos, 12-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 2004, should be one of the best of the year in college baseball. Otherwise, this looks like a matchup of great pitching (Long Beach State staff ERA was 3.11 in 2004) against great hitting (Arizona State's team batting average was .325, and a .469 slugging percentage, in 2004). The Dirtbags pitching remains deep, and despite the loss of Jered Weaver, should return strong in 2005. In 2004 the 49ers held opponents to a .225 batting average, and .325 slugging percentage. With significant turnover in hitters, and power hitting (including the loss of OF John Bowker and DH Jason Vargas), it remains to be seen how strong the Dirtbags will be at bat. But the 2004 team batting average of .297, and slugging percentage of .419, were certainly respectable (especially considering the fact that Long Beach arguably plays in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in all of D-I baseball).

The Sun Devils clearly can crush the ball, and score runs by the bushel. Last season they scored 465 runs while holding opponents to 320. Long Beach State scored 327 runs, their opponents 209. One advantage the Dirtbags may have is the timing of the series, which is the opener for both schools. It seems likely that the Sun Devils did not see a lot of breaking balls in the fall, and many hitters take a couple weeks to find their timing. In March, this would likely be a very different series. If pitching dominates, I like the Dirtbags chances.

According to this article in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners signing of Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson is likely to affect the roles that will be played by former Dirtbags Jeremy Reed and Greg Dobbs. Here's an excerpt:

The signings of Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson will have a domino effect on the rest of the Mariners' plans, not to mention the rest of the Mariners.

For some current Mariners, the effect is good. For others, not so much.

While general manager Bill Bavasi said he wasn't going to make out manager Mike Hargrove's lineup card for him, he did hint that the Mariners will start the season with rookie Jeremy Reed in center field, Randy Winn back in left field and Ichiro Suzuki in right.

That would presumably push Raul Ibanez to designated hitter, which Ibanez has said he's not crazy about, and relegate Bucky Jacobsen to the bench.

The five-year deal for Beltre dooms Seattle's third-base prospects. Justin Leone will have a shot at a bench spot because he can play the outfield, although Scott Spiezio, under contract for two more years at $6 million, will likely be the primary backup at third. Greg Dobbs, another third base prospect, is probably looking at a position change or a ticket out....

Former Dirtbag Chris DeMaria pitched two summers (2000 and 2001) in the Northwoods League for the St. Cloud River Bats. Here's an excerpt from a nice story in the St. Cloud Times on his selection in the Rule 5 draft:

Demaria, who pitched for St. Cloud in 2000-2001, holds the Bats' record for consecutive scoreless innings pitched (48 in 2001). He also holds St. Cloud single-season record for innings pitched, complete games and shutouts. In 2001, he pitched 92 innings, including six complete games and four shutouts -- all league bests. His four shutouts remain a league record, along with his .909 winning percentage that season.

Demaria also holds St. Cloud career marks for wins (15), earned-run average (2.22), innings pitched (162.0), and strikeouts (147).

Baseball America has analyzed the drafts of all Major League teams. Here's what they had to say about Dirtbags taken in the June, 2004, draft:

Jered Weaver (Anaheim Angels - round 1, 12th overall):

Best Fastball: ... RHP Jered Weaver (1), who probably won't sign until the spring, has excellent command of a fastball that sits at 91-92 mph and touches 95...

Most Intriguing Background: Weaver's brother Jeff was a Tigers first-rounder in 1998 and pitches for the Dodgers.

Closest To The Majors: Once he signs, Weaver should need little minor league time before he's ready.

Assessment: Eddie Bane wasn't afraid to gamble in his first draft as Angels scouting director. He took Weaver, the draft's top-rated prospect, with the No. 12 pick after other teams passed because of his reported desire for an eight-figure deal.

Jason Vargas (Florida Marlins - round 2, 68th overall):

Best Pro Debut: No longer splitting time between pitching and DHing like he did at Long Beach State, LHP Jason Vargas (2) excelled. He went 5-2, 2.09 in 11 starts and worked the first seven innings of a combined no-hitter in his second outing after a promotion to low Class A.

Best Fastball: Vargas usually pitches at 91-94 mph, slightly harder than LHP Taylor Tankersley (1), who works at 90-93.

Closest To The Majors: Tankersley and Vargas should be neck and neck on their way to Pro Player Stadium.

Assessment: With Tankersley and Vargas joining fast-rising Scott Olsen in the system, Florida's rotation could have a decidedly lefty look in a few years...

John Bowker (San Francisco Giants - 3rd round, 100th overall):

Best Pro Debut: OF Eddy Martinez-Esteve (2) hit .329 between four clubs, including a sizzling .420 during 17 games in high Class A. OF John Bowker (3) began his career by going 22-for-43 (.512) in the Rookie-level Arizona League and hit .371-6-27 overall.

Best Pure Hitter: Martinez-Esteve or Bowker...

Best Raw Power: Again, it's Martinez-Esteve or Bowker. Bowker can pound fastballs and breaking balls alike, and he has more present power...

Closest To The Majors: The three outfielders at the top of San Francisco's draft are the most logical candidates,... [includes John Bowker]

Assessment: The Giants haven't developed an everyday big leaguer since drafting Bill Mueller and Chris Singleton in 1993. Between Martinez-Esteve, Bowker and Timpner, they hope they've ended that drought.

Brad Davis (Florida Marlins - 5th round, 158th overall):

Best Defensive Player: C Brad Davis (5) played first base and right field at Long Beach State in 2003 because Todd Jennings, who became a second-round pick of the Giants, was behind the plate. Davis is very athletic and has solid catch-and-throw skills. He also has a chance to hit.

Also drafted were (no comments by Baseball America):

Neil Jamison, drafted by the New York Mets in the 8th round, 224th overall, who did not sign and has returned to Long Beach State.

Mike Hofius, drafted by the Pittsburg Pirates in the 22nd round, 652nd overall.

Josh Buhagiar, drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 32nd round, 956th overall.

Joe Ritzo, over at TheBootleg, is out with his pre-season top 16 for 2005 Division I baseball. He places Long Beach State at number 16, with this analysis:

The Dirtbags upset Stanford in the regionals last season, before [being] upset themselves by Arizona in the supers. Golden Spikes winner Jered Weaver was a first round draft pick, but last year's #2 starter Cesar Ramos (12-4, 2.29) is back to anchor the rotation. All of the key relievers return as well led by closer Neil Jamison (3-5, 4.35, 12 SV). Meanwhile at the plate, five offensive starters are back with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (.317-7-44) again expected to lead the offense. Ramos will be an outstanding starting pitcher again for the Dirtbags, but numerous other players are going to have to step up for Long Beach to overtake Fullerton in the Big West.

The first line had to hurt Joe...The Bootleg bills itself as "The UnAuthorized Authority on Cardinal Sports." I think Joe is right on the last point. As always, the Dirtbags have pitching depth. The loss of Jered Weaver and Jason Vargas will be felt, but I think that depth will fill the void. We'll need at least two outfielders, a first baseman and a catcher to perform well on both offense and defense. I suspect we'll have several guys in the outfield on a situational basis. The loss of Mike Hofius at first leaves a defensive void that will be tough to replace. And the D'Bags have got depth at catcher, but it remains to be seen what offense will come from the position.

In this post I indicated that Kenny Maiques had left Long Beach State for a community college. It turns out that it's Rio Hondo CC. And for 2005-2006, he has signed a National Letter of Intent to play for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks.

Two former Long Beach State Dirtbags were selected in the AAA minor league phase of the Major League Baseball Rule 5 draft at baseball's winter meetings yesterday. Baseball America explains the Rule 5 draft here.

The first player taken in the Class AAA phase was Chris DeMaria. The Kansas City Royals took him from the Pittsburg Pirate organization. Chris, a right handed relief pitchers, was drafted by the Pirates out of Long Beach State following his senior year in 2002. He played in 2002 and 2004 with the Class A Hickory Crawdads, going 8-3 with 10 saves and a 2.94 ERA in 2004. He missed the 2003 season with an injury.

On December 9, 2004, the Baltimore Orioles signed free agent SS, and former Dirtbag, Chris Gomez to a minor league contract. He was set to be a non-roster invitee to the Orioles spring training camp. But the Philadelphia Phillies selected him with the 14th pick in the AAA phase. Here's what the Daily Times had to say:

In the Triple-A portion the Phils were able to grab infielder Chris Gomez, a 33-year-old, 12-year big-league veteran the Orioles were hoping to slip through the cracks after signing him to a minor-league contract earlier this winter.

Chris played in 109 games for the Toronto BlueJays in 2004, hitting .282 in 341 at bats.

Okay...I dunno about that! BUT there is a lot of pride in being a Dirtbag! The Sacramento Bee has an expanded story on Vance Worley's commitment to Long Beach State. Here's a paragraph that's music to the ears:

"I chose Long Beach State because of the reputation of the Dirtbag baseball program but mainly because of the pitching coach, Troy Buckley," Worley said. "I feel that I can mature and learn as a pitcher under his guidance. I would also like to help the Dirtbags get to Omaha."

Be sure to read the rest here.

If Boyd Nation's number crunching is right (and the college baseball and statistical fanatic usually is), the Dirtbags had best not take the UC Davis Aggies lightly. The Aggies join the Big West this coming season as a provisional member. They finished fourth in the nation last year in Division II baseball. According to Boyd Nation's analysis at BoydsWorld.com, the Aggies would have come in at #38 in the Division I rankings last year had they been a D-I school. Boyd also had this to say:

UC Davis looks quite likely to join UC Irvine and UC Riverside with tournament berths as soon as they're eligible.

For the last several years, the Big West has been one of the top four or five baseball conferences, and it appears that UC Davis will do nothing but help to perpetuate that standing.

Will Carroll at All-Baseball.com projects former Dirtbag Abe Alvarez as Boston's number 4 starter next season.

And even though he pitched in only one game for the Red Sox last season, he was awarded a piece of the playoff money earned by the Boston players.

From the Sacramento Bee:

"McClatchy baseball standout Vance Worley can't wait to become a Long Beach State "Dirtbag.""

From the Los Angeles Times:

The Angels added a wild card to an otherwise orderly deck of players Wednesday, agreeing to terms on an incentive-laden six-year contract with Kendry Morales in hopes that the prized Cuban prospect can blossom into a major league slugger.

If Morales, 21, attains the bulk of the incentives included in his contract, which includes a $3-million signing bonus, he will make around $10 million, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations...

[Angels GM] Stoneman said he was not deterred by all the well-documented flops or the fact that he would have less money available to sign pitcher Jered Weaver, the Angels' first-round draft pick. Stoneman said Weaver was "still under consideration."

A little bit of information is starting to get out there about high school student-athletes who have committed - in writing or orally - to the Long Beach State Dirtbags next school year (2005-2006). Here's what I have so far:

Vance Worley, RHP, McClatchy HS, Sacramento. According to TeamOneBaseball.com, he's a strong verbal for Long Beach State. He's 6'2", 195, and bats and throws righthanded. His bio according to TeamOneBaseball.com: "Power armed RHP with clean mechanics makes him one of the top draft prospects on the West Coast. Will touch up to 91 and has a power breaking ball." Here's what StudentSportsBaseball.com (paid subscribers only, so no link) has to say:

The best two way talent in Nor-Cal. Posted big offensive numbers as a junior and dominated on the mound as a pitcher. Has a 91mph fastball with an efficient delivery. Best quality is his control of his fastball and curve. Until this summer was one of the most underrated players in California. Established himself as one of the premier pitchers at the 2004 Area Code Games.

Vance's HS Junior stats are here.

Andrew Lopez, pitcher-outfielder, Elk Grove (CA) HS, has signed with Long Beach State. He's 6'1", 180. His HS Junior stats are here.

Ted Pattock, center fielder, Chandler-Gilbert CC, Tempe, AZ, is on board with a strong verbal committment, according to TeamOneBaseball.com. He's 6'1", 180, bats lefthanded and throws righthanded. TeamOneBaseball.com has this bio: "Has three solid tools, running, hitting ability, and fielding. Projects to have average power. Wiry and athletic, he should be an impact player at the four year level. He will enter LBSU as a sophomore in regards to his eligibility." Here's his bio on the Chandler-Gilbert CC webpage.

The media is coming down hard on former Dirtbag Jason Giambi for alledgedly using performance enhancing drugs and substances - and rightly so, in my opinion. Take a look at this article in the New York Post. I think Jason made some very bad decisions, and he has and will probably pay a high price - in terms of his health and livelihood.

Watching Brian Kilmeade on Fox News Channel this morning, it was reported that Barry Bonds may also have testified before the grand jury that he used such drugs as well. The focus of the piece was whether fans will stand for a chemically enhanced player breaking baseball's most revered record - lifetime home runs. I'm sure there will be carping, but I bet as he approaches Babe Ruth's and Hank Aaron's records fans will flock to watch in San Francisco and on the road. In my book, anyone who complains about steroid use by players but gives their money to the teams that employ these drug abusers is a hypocrite.

But the biggest hypocrites of all are the owners and managers in Major League Baseball. The New York Yankees have already ran to the MLB office looking for ways to void Jason's contract. I've heard he has something like $82,000,000 in compensation owed, much of it deferred from prior years. The Yankees feigned horror about drug use is amazing. In truth, this news is the best thing to happen to them for some time. They see the chance to dump a contract they desperately wanted to get out of regardless of Giambi's conduct. If you doubt this, then ask yourself how quickly the Giants will make the same move concerning Bonds. It ain't gonna happen!

And, frankly, I don't believe for a minute that MLB doesn't know who is using steroids and other performance enhancing drugs. How else does a twenty something man go from being a well conditioned athlete to the Incredible Hulk. Give me a break. The only sin that Giambi and Bonds have committed in the eyes of the MLB owners and execs is embarrassing them through public exposure of the truth. They gladly accept the benefits of these substances as long as they can pretend it isn't happening.

I wish all abuse of these drugs was consistently exposed, and consistently led to lifetime bans from baseball. I have no doubt, assuming the reports of abuse are true, that Giambi and Bonds have made millions of extra dollars as a direct result of this stuff. This payday hangs as a temptation to college, high school and minor league players to follow suit. What 18 or 20 year old doesn't feel immortal? The well documented health risks from using steroids, etc., are (no doubt, already are being) ignored in favor of making the big bucks. This is a sickness that needs to be cured...now.

Eleven former Long Beach State Dirtbags have been named to Major League Baseball team 40 man rosters (if I've missed someone, please let me know). They are:

Abe Alvarez, Boston Red Sox. Played with Portland last season, with a one game appearance with Boston.

Jason Giambi, New York Yankees. Here's a story on Jason that none of us really wants to read.

Bobby Crosby, Oakland Athletics. 2004 American League Rookie of the Year. He'll be the keynote speaker at the Leadoff Dinner this year.

Greg Dobbs, Seattle Mariners. Played at Seattle, Tacoma and San Antonio last season.

Jeremy Reed, Seattle Mariners. Played at Seattle, Tacoma and Charlotte last season.

Steve Trachsel, New York Mets.

Chad Bentz, Washington Nationals (formerly the Montreal Expos). Played at Montreal, Edmonton and Harrisburg last season.

Terrmel Sledge, Washington Nationals (formerly the Montreal Expos).

Russ Rohlicek, Chicago Cubs. Played at West Tennessee last season.

Mike Gallo, Houston Astros. Played at Houston and New Orleans last season.

Paul McAnulty, San Diego Padres. Played at Mobile and Lake Elsinore last season. Of everyone on this list of 40 man roster players, Paul's stock has probably risen the most. He had a fantastic year, and kept it rolling in the Arizona Fall League.

Notably absent: Chris Gomez (free agent), Jeff Liefer (non-roster invitee to the Cleveland Indians camp) and Rocky Biddle (released by the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals).